The USDA’s monthly report on World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was released on August 12.

The report raised its estimates for global 2016-2017 wheat production by 4.9 million tons to a record 743.4 million tons. This was mainly driven by increased estimates for Russian wheat production; since July, estimates have grown from 7.0 million tons to 72 million due to excellent growing conditions. Predictions for wheat production in Ukraine and Kazakhstan were also increased by 2 million tons each, and those for Australia and Canada by 1 million tons each. These increases are partially offset by a 9.0 million ton decrease in the EU due to heavy rains, particularly in France. Global wheat use is also predicted to increase by 3.2 million tons to 732.5 million, primarily driven by increased feed use in Russia. World stocks for the end of the year remain at a record high of 241.9 million tons.

The report significantly increased its forecast for global coarse grain supplies to 1,578 million tons for 2016-2017, mainly due to reduced corn feeding in Indonesia, Canada, and Ukraine and increased corn production in the US, Argentina, Mexico, and India. Global coarse grain production estimates were up by 20 million tons in August at 1,322 million tons, mainly driven by a significant increase in US coarse grain production, from 385 million tons in July to 402 million tons in August. Conversely, production estimates were decreased for the EU and Canada. Global 2016-2017 coarse grain consumption estimates were increased by 8.9 million tons, reversing a 3.3 million ton drop in July, due to significant increases in corn use in the US and to a lesser extent in Mexico, India, and the EU.

Global rice production estimates for 2016-2017 were lowered slightly from 481.2 to 481.1 million tons, due to lower forecasts for Afghanistan and Bolivia; these were partially offset by increased forecasts for Iran. Meanwhile, global rice consumption was lowered by 1.8 million tons to 478.8 million tons, mainly due to an estimated reduction in consumption in India. Global rice ending stocks for 2016-2017 were raised significantly by 6.5 million tons to 113.8 million.

Global oilseed production for 2016-2017 is estimated at 543.5, up 7 million tons from July, with US soybean production driving most of the increase. Conversely, India and Ukraine are predicted to see declines in soybean production. Rapeseed production is also reduced for the EU due to excessive rainfall, mainly in France. Other changes include increased sunflower seed production in Russia and Ukraine, increased peanut production in India and Senegal, increased cottonseed production in China, and decreased cottonseed production in India. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2016-2017 are increased by 4.5 million tons, projected at 80.6 million tons.

The WASDE reports include forecasts for US and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, palm), and cotton. The next report will be released on September 12.

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