According to the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report , global wheat supplies for 2017-2018 are up significantly due to an 8.6-million-ton production increase in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Russian wheat production surpassed last year’s record by 5.0 million tons. Even though there are reduced production forecasts in Canada, EU, and U.S. the increased production from FSU more than offsets these conditions; as a result, foreign trade has increased from the FSU as well. Projected wheat imports are raised this month for several countries, led by Indonesia and Nigeria. Projected global wheat ending stocks are at 264.7 million tons, which is a new record.
The coarse grains production outlook is virtually unchanged, but WASDE forecasts lower trade and greater stocks relative to last month. EU corn and barley production and Canada corn productions are all down, but corn and barley production forecasts in Russia are higher based on higher corn area and favorable conditions for barley. In Brazil, corn production is also increased due to a successful second harvest. Corn exports are forecast down 25 million bushels, reflecting increased competitiveness from Argentina and Brazil. With supplies falling faster than use, corn ending stocks are reduced by 52 million bushels. Corn imports are raised this month, mostly from the EU and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month.
Global rice supplies fell slightly this month, with decreased production more than offsetting higher beginning stocks. The world’s rice crop remains the largest global crop on record, even though the U.S. has produced its smallest rice crop since 2012. Global rice exports are raised by 0.5 million tons, primarily in India. Global ending stocks are raised to 122.9 million.
The global oilseed production forecast for 2017-2018 is up 2.8 million tons, mainly due to a 2.3-million-ton increase in soybean production. A higher U.S. soybean forecast was partly offset with a 1.5-million-ton reduction for India, based on the latest government planting data that indicates a lower harvested area. In Canada, production levels for both soybeans and canola are projected lower due to dry weather conditions in the Canadian Prairies. Global soybean exports for 2017-2018 are up by 1.5 million tons, as higher U.S. exports are partly offset by lower shipments from Argentina. Soybean ending stocks for 2017-2018 are increased to 97.8 million.
By: Jenn Campus