FEWS Net has released the latest Global Food Assistance Outlook Brief, covering projected food needs for November 2016. The report covers forward-looking analysis of projected emergency food needs in covered countries, based on the size of each country's acutely food insecure population and projected length of the lean season.

Several of the Food Security Portal's prioritized countries are listed in this month's report. In Ethiopia, the size of the acutely food-insecure population is expected to be lower in November than it was in November of the previous year, due to anticipated October/November harvest levels and improvement in livestock production. However, areas of the country will remain Phase 3 and 4 (Crisis and Emergency, respectively) levels of food insecurity, and the lean season is expected to be longer than usual, running from May through November.

In Nigeria, projected food assistance needs remain steady from last year's levels but are above the five-year average. The depreciation of the national currency continues to contribute to rising food prices, and conflict is interrupting households' access to food throughout the northeast. The country is expected to see Phase 3 (Crisis) food insecurity in November, and the lean season is expected to start early.

Malawi will see an increase in projected food assistance needs from both November 2015 levels and the five-year average. Crop production in the southern region of the country is expected to be well below average due to the effects of El NiƱo, and the report expects poor households to need assistance throughout the entire 2016-2017 consumption year.

In Guatemala, assistance needs are expected to remain stable from last year but remain above the five-year average. The lean season began early in January/February, and the country is expected to be in Phase 3 (Crisis) food insecurity levels in November. Staple crops in the eastern and western dry corridor have received sporadic, below average rainfall, and harvests are thus expected to be lower than usual.

Food assistance needs in both Madagascar and Chad are also up from both last year's levels and the five-year average; both countries are projected to be in Phase 3 (Crisis) food insecurity levels in November. Drought conditions in both countries have significantly reduced staple crop harvests; conflict around the Lake Chad region has also reduced food access and availability in this region.

In Haiti, food assistance needs for November are expected to be lower than last year's levels and stable compared to the five-year average. While the lean season began early in February and is expected to last longer than usual (into July), green harvests in November are expected to increase households' food access. Nevertheless, the country is still projected to be at Phase 3 (Crisis) food insecurity in November.

Honduras's food assistance needs are expected to increase from the five-year average in November, and the country will remain in Phase 3 (Crisis) food insecurity levels. This is a result of several successive years of drought conditions and subsequent lowered employment opportunities.

In Kenya, food assistance needs for November are projected to be lower than both last year's levels and the five-year average. However, two seasons of deficient rainfall in the pastoral areas will likely result in many households in the region moving into Phase 3 (Crisis) food insecurity by September.

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