FAO's first Crop Prospects and Food Situation report of 2016 estimates that while global stocks remain at adequate levels, a total of 34 countries are in need of external food assistance due to a combination of civil conflict and El Niño-linked weather conditions. Twenty-seven of those countries are in Africa, where adverse weather resulted in significantly lower 2015 cereal harvests. Crop production prospects for southern Africa have been particularly affected, and this is likely to have severe food security implications in the region, according to the report.
Crop prospects in Latin America are generally favorable, despite El Niño effects in Central America and the Caribbean. Higher than average cereal production in South America and Mexico are expected to fill the gaps left by decreased production in the rest of CAC. Similarly, production prospects in Asia are favorable as well due to increased cereal harvests in China and Turkey.
FAO estimates that global wheat production for 2016 will reach 723 million tons, down slightly from 2015's record outputs. The majority of the 2016 global maize crop has yet to be planted in Asia, Europe, and North America; in South America and southern Africa, early indications suggest that El Niño-driven weather effects will cause significantly reduced maize outputs. Rice production estimates for the Southern Hemisphere are mixed, with lower outputs expected in Indonesia, southern Africa, and Australia as a result of weather conditions and water shortages. Rice prospects are positive in Ecuador and Peru, but are less so in Bolivia, Guyana, Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil.
International crop prices seem to be holding steady at levels lower than the previous year.