In recent days, the price for soft wheat has increased, as has its volatility. This increase in volatility has likely stemmed from reports that cold weather in Europe may damage crops, a fear that may in fact have been overstated. Reports from Russia about a potential new levy on wheat exports starting in April 2012 may have also played a part in this week's increased volatility. Our NEXQ model has captured these changes and as a result our excessive food price variability early warning system is indicating moderate volatility (see the Soft Wheat Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System), which breaks the trend of low volatility that has been seen in this commodity since July 2011.

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