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Approximately 1.17 million people (10 percent of the population analysed) in Burundi experienced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity between August and September 2025. The situation was driven by the combined impact of current macroeconomic conditions, climatic shocks, conflicts in cross-border areas, inflation, rising food and fuel prices, as well as currency depreciation and significant reductions in humanitarian assistance. The urban poor and low-income households in rural areas were most affected.
The situation is expected to deteriorate in the first projection period (October to December 2025), with approximately 15 percent of the population (1.8 million people) likely to experience Phase 3—an increase of 630,000 people compared to the current period. This deterioration in the food situation is projected due to the decrease or depletion of household food reserves, reduced livelihood opportunities, the expected further reduction in humanitarian food assistance, and the intensification of the macroeconomic crisis. Food prices are likely to reach high levels on the markets.

In October, wheat harvesting wraps up and the harvesting of maize and soybeans begins across the northern hemisphere. In the southern hemisphere, wheat crop is developing, and farmers are starting to plant maize and soybeans. Rice harvests are ongoing in China and Southeast Asia. Overall, crop prospects are good. In September, wheat, maize, and rice prices generally declined, owing to ample supplies and strong competition among exporters. However, soybean prices stayed firm in Brazil and the United States, balancing out price drops in Argentina caused by changes in export taxes. Despite these positive trends, ongoing trade tensions have triggered adjustments in trade flows of some commodities, with potential implications on farmers' margins in producing countries and consequently future planting decisions.

Poor rainfall, flooding and persistent conflict are driving 3.4 million people into high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) across much of Somalia. Between July and September 2025, around 624,000 people (3 percent of the population) have been experiencing Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), while more than 2.8 million people (15 percent of the population) have been experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
In northern regions, poor rainfall and drought conditions led to failed crop production and poor livestock production and reproduction. In central and southern Somalia, conflict and flooding hampered crop production in agropastoral and riverine livelihoods leading to population displacement, disrupting livelihood activities and market access.
In the projection period (October to December 2025), the food security situation is expected to worsen as the Deyr season rainfall is likely to be below normal. Below-average rainfall, high food prices, continued conflict, and localised flooding are projected to drive 4.4 million people (23 percent of the population) into high levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above). During this period, the food security situation of urban IDPs in Bay and Bakool is expected to deteriorate from Phase 3to Phase 4. Among urban populations in Nugaal (Burtinle and Eyl), the food security situation is likely to deteriorate from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to Phase 3.

An estimated 1.85 million children aged 6 – 59 months are expected to suffer acute malnutrition and need urgent treatment between August 2025 and July 2026. This includes approximately 421,000 cases of children likely to suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM), and 1.43 million children likely to suffer Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). Notably, around 65 percent of the total acute malnutrition burden is concentrated in southern Somalia. Compared to the same season last year, the expected burden represents a 12 and 5 percent increase for GAM and SAM respectively.

Regarding the severity of the acute malnutrition situation, between June and September 2025, out of the 47 analysed areas, 18 are classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). These include IDPs in Bossaso (Bari), Galkacyo (Mudug), Mogadishu (Banadir), Baidoa (Bay), Kismayo (Lower Juba), Dhusa Mareeb (Galgadud). Urban populations in Bossaso, Dhusaareb and Beled eyne towns are also classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 as well as some rural areas of Beled Weyne rural (riverine and agropastoral), Shabelle riverine, Shabelle agropastoral, Bay agropastoral, West Golis pastoral and Hawd pastoral of Central regions, all of which were assessed based on Weight-for-Height z-scores.

The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2025 September Update provides data available as of 22 August 2025 on acute food insecurity, acute malnutrition and displacement in countries/territories with food crises. It is an update of the GRFC 2025. The report provides an analysis of the conflict-driven Famines in Palestine (Gaza Strip) and the Sudan as well as recent dynamics in other deteriorating food-crisis situations, such as Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Myanmar, South Sudan and Yemen.

The IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) analysis of Uganda’s refugee settlements and Kampala’s urban refugees found that approximately 56,681 children aged 6–59 months and 6,827 pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) are suffering or projected to suffer from acute malnutrition between April 2025 and March 2026. The situation between April and September 2025 was significantly worse compared to the same period in 2024.
Three refugee settlements—Adjumani, Bidibidi, and Palorinya—were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). Six settlements (Imvepi, Kiryandongo, Lobule, Oruchiga, Palabek, and Rhino Camp) along with Kampala’s urban refugees were classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert). The remaining four settlements—Kyaka II, Kyangwali, Nakivale, and Rwamwanja—were classified in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable).

Uganda is facing a significant refugee crisis, hosting over 1.9 million refugees—the largest number in Africa and the sixth largest globally. In the 13 refugee settlements assessed, as well as in Kampala, approximately 712,000 people (37 percent of the analysed population) are expected to be experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between August 2025 and February 2026. This includes 16,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 696,000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
This marks a notable improvement compared to the previous period (June–July 2025), when 920,000 people (48 percent of the analysed population) were facing high levels of acute food insecurity. The anticipated improvement is largely attributed to expected increases in crop yields from enhanced agricultural production. In addition, food prices are forecasted to decline with higher production, improving household food availability and access.

Malnutrition remains a concern in certain parts of the country, with approximately 114,278 children aged 6-59 months, as well as 23,151 pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW), suffering or expected to suffer from acute malnutrition through March 2026. Regarding the severity of the situation, from April to September 2025, the Mopeia district in Zambézia province is classified in IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 3 (Severe). Six other districts—Derre (Zambézia), Mutarara (Tete), Macossa (Manica), Mossuril and Angoche (Nampula), and Muanza (Sofala)—are classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).
Between October 2025 and March 2026, the nutritional situation is projected to deteriorate across the majority of districts. This decline is expected to be driven by the depletion of household food reserves, limited access to safe drinking water, and inadequate coverage of essential health and sanitation services. These factors collectively heighten the risk of malnutrition, particularly among vulnerable populations.

Approximately 2.09 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and September 2025, with 143,000 people experiencing Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. The remaining 1.95 million people are experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) conditions.
The key drivers of the situation include climatic shocks—drought and irregular rainfall—in the southern and central areas of the country, as well as high food prices. In recent months, the northern part of the country has experienced a cessation of conflict and a degree of stabilisation, enabling the return of approximately 700,000 people. Despite this, more than 9,000 people remain internally displaced in Cabo Delgado. Displaced households and households in the process of returning to safe areas often face significant challenges, including limited access to agricultural production, livestock, and other forms of income generation. Their capacity to resume sustainable livelihoods remains severely constrained, leaving many entirely reliant on humanitarian food assistance. Meanwhile, sporadic attacks continue to occur in the districts of Macomia and Quissanga, where conflict continues to undermine security and recovery efforts.

Between May and August 2025, an estimated 3.4 million people—equivalent to 19 percent of Guatemala’s population—faced high levels of Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This figure represents around 400,000 more people compared to the same period in 2024. Eleven of the 22 departments analysed were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), notably Alta Verapaz, Huehuetenango and Quiché.
For the first projection period, September 2025 to January 2026, a relative improvement is expected, with around 2.6 million people (14 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. This includes 2.4 million in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 185,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a 5 percent reduction compared with the previous period, attributed to improved food availability in some areas.
However, for the second projection period, February to April 2026, a deterioration is anticipated, with about 3 million people (16 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. Of this total, around 2.8 million would remain in Phase 3 (Crisis) and more than 248,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency), reflecting the persistence of structural factors that continue to undermine food security.