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The impact of conflict and civil insecurity is deepening food insecurity in South Sudan, with over half of the population (about 7.7 million people or 57 percent of the analysed population) experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between April and July 2025. Among them, 83,000 people are experiencing catastrophic levels of food insecurity, classified in IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe), particularly in Pibor County (Greater Pibor Administrative Area), and the counties of Luakpiny/Nasir, Ulang, and Malakal in Upper Nile State. Among them are 39,000 returnees who fled the conflict in Sudan and are currently classified in IPC AFI Phase 5.
In Luakpiny/Nasir and Ulang, which face a risk of Famine under a worst-case scenario, urgent and immediate action is needed for these populations, including large-scale and multi-sectoral response and the protection of humanitarian access to prevent the total collapse of livelihoods, increased starvation, death and possible deterioration into a full-blown Famine.
In addition, around 2.4 million people (18 percent of the analysed population) are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) and nearly 5.2 million people (38 percent of the analysed population) are in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis). These populations require urgent humanitarian response to meet food needs, protect lives and livelihoods, and reduce further deterioration.

Approximately 15.5 million people in Bangladesh (16 percent of the analysed population) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity in April 2025 and were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). In the projection period (May-December 2025), the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) is expected to slightly increase to 16 million, representing 17 percent of the total analysed population. This includes 400,000 people classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The food security situation is expected to worsen notably for Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) in Cox’s Bazar and Bhashanchar, with 20 percent classified in Phase 4 and 20 percent in Phase 3 respectively. Sunamganj and Host community and Non-Host Local Community in Cox’s Bazar are also expected to face high food insecurity, with 30 percent and 35 percent of their respective populations classified in Phase 3 or above with 5 percent population classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) for Sunamganj.

In the current period (March to April 2025), an estimated 12.6 million people (27 percent of the total population of 46 million people) faced high levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 and above (Crisis or worse) and are in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance. Of these, about 1.95 million people (4 percent of the total population) are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 10.64 million people (23 percent of the total population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The situation is mainly driven by a fragile economy, a significant cut in humanitarian assistance compared to 2024, and environmental disasters, notably flooding and drought. An improvement is expected during the projection period (May to October 2025), with an estimated 9.52 million people (21 percent of the population) classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

During the current period (March to May 2025), the Trinational Border Region of the Río Lempa is experiencing a moderate but sustained decline in acute food security, primarily driven by climatic variability, high food prices, and low food reserves. An estimated 100,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), requiring urgent action to safeguard livelihoods and address food consumption gaps. This includes approximately 97,000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 3,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The Ch’orti’ micro-region is the most severely affected, with 25 percent of its population in Phase 3 or higher, while Ocotepeque, Cayaguanca and Güija remain in Phase 2 (Stressed), despite hosting a significant population in Crisis. Food access and availability are constrained by crop losses caused by prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and pest outbreaks, and are further exacerbated by the increasing cost of basic food items.
During the first projection period (June to September 2025) indicates a further deterioration during the seasonal hunger period, with 139,000 people (23 percent) projected to be in Phase 3 or above, including 15,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency). The Ch’orti’ region is expected to remain severely affected, with one in three people in Crisis or worse. This decline is largely attributed to the depletion of 70 percent of staple grain reserves, rising market prices, and reduced employment opportunities in the agricultural sector.
From October 2025 to February 2026, a slight improvement is anticipated, supported by seasonal labour demand, grain harvests, and remittances. Nevertheless, around 69,000 people (11 percent) will remain in Phase 3 or above, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities, especially in Ch’orti’, which is expected to maintain Phase 3 classification for 20 percent of its population

Nearly 71,000 children under the age of five are expected to be acutely malnourished over the next 11 months (April 2025-March 2026). Of these, 14,100 cases are expected to be severe. In addition, nearly 17,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women also require treatment for acute malnutrition during this period.
Between 1 April and 10 May, acute malnutrition (AMN) was at Alert and Serious levels (IPC AMN Phase 2 and 3). However, experience has shown that acute malnutrition can worsen rapidly, and latest data indicate a deteriorating trend that is expected to persist. Consequently, acute malnutrition in North Gaza, Gaza and Rafah governorates will likely reach Critical levels (IPC AMN Phase 4) between 11 May and end of September.

Nineteen months into the conflict, the Gaza Strip is still confronted with a critical risk of Famine. Over 60 days have passed since all humanitarian aid and commercial supplies were blocked from entering the territory. Goods indispensable for people’s survival are either depleted or expected to run out in the coming weeks. The entire population is facing high levels of acute food insecurity, with half a million people (one in five) facing starvation.

From 11 May to the end of September 2025, the whole territory is classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with the entire population expected to face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 470,000 people (22 percent of the population) in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), over a million people (54 percent) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and the remaining half million (24 percent) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This marks a significant deterioration compared to the previous IPC analysis (released in October 2024) and the already dire conditions detected between 1 April - 10 May 2025. During this time, 1.95 million people (93 percent) were classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 244,000 people (12 percent) in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 925,000 (44 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

High food prices, rising costs of agricultural inputs, and the impact of Tropical Storm Sara contributed to approximately 1.8 million people—equivalent to 470,000 households or 18 percent of the national population—facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between December 2024 and March 2025. Of these, around 116,000 people were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nationwide.
In the first projected period, from April to July 2025, despite a slight improvement, the situation remains similar for an estimated 1.7 million people (17 percent of the population), who are likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), with at least 92,000 people expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). During this period, while the dry season may be stimulating tourism in some parts of the country and food inflation shows signs of stabilisation, agricultural households are anticipated to face hardship due to depleted food stocks during the lean season. Moreover, the potential suspension of projects funded by USAID may negatively impact key sectors such as education, health, and migration, further increasing the vulnerability of the population.