Over the past four months, weather patterns and conflict have played a key role in the food security situation in several regions, according to the latest issue of the WFP's Global Food Security Update. While good rains in the Sahel have led to a predicted short-term improvement in the region's food security, drought and flooding in several other areas of the world have produced shocks that are likely to drive more people into hunger.
FEWS NET has released the latest Monthly Price Watch for May 2012. The report cites slight fluctuations in the international grains markets, with wheat increasing in many markets and maize export prices continuing to decrease. In both East and West Africa, staple food prices (particularly cereals prices) increased in April. These increases were due to diminishing stocks from previous harvests (East Africa) and a rapid increase in demand that is still unmatched by supply (West Africa, particularly the Sahel).
FEWS NET has released its April Food Price Watch, citing stable prices throughout much of Africa and Central America. The Sahel region saw relatively stable cereals prices due to food assistance interventions and successful transport from surplus areas. In East Africa, staple prices remained generally stable, though high; some areas in this region saw seasonal increases.
In recent years, the world has faced continuing food security challenges. The food price spikes of 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 brought lasting impacts in the form of increasingly high food prices and price volatility, overwhelmingly harming the world's poorest producers and consumers. Guarding against price volatility to protect the world's most vulnerable populations will require restructuring global agricultural and financial markets, a need that global leaders are now beginning to recognize and address.
FEWS NET has released an updated forecast analysis for the Horn of Africa, citing the likelihood of poor rainfall in the coming months. In the most likely scenario, rainfall in March-May will be ten percent below average. While a ten percent reduction in rainfall would not have substantial negative impacts on crop production, humanitarian agencies are urged to prepare contingency plans to address possible disruptions to food access.
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FEWS NET has released its monthly price watch for February 2012. The report cites stable and declining grain prices in much of West and East Africa, although prices remain high in the Sahel region and Kenya. In particular, grain prices in South Sudan remain very high due to poor production and trade; similarly, maize prices in Malawi continue to increase rapidly. Afghanistan and Tajikistan continue to see high wheat and wheat flour prices.
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FEWS NET has released a new outlook report for West Africa/Sahel. The report states that crisis-level food insecurity is expected to continue in a number of areas in the region, based on current market prices, trade patterns, labor conditions, and social conditions. Chronic malnutrition is expected to rise above 15 percent.
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Improving global food security and ending hunger worldwide are daunting tasks, and policymakers striving toward these goals face many obstacles, from changing climate conditions to increasing financial speculation to highly concentrated export markets. These factors and more can contribute to high, and highly volatile, food prices, threatening global food security and causing widespread human suffering.
A Commentary by Maximo Torero
Thailand’s rice exporters are warning that the country’s 2012 rice exports could drop by as much as 30-40 percent as the result of a proposed government policy that would guarantee fixed prices for both plain white rice and jasmine rice. The Pheu Thai Party, which was elected into power in July, has promised farmers fixed prices of 15,000 baht ($US 500) per ton for plain white rice and 20,000 baht (US$ 667) per ton for jasmine rice.
According to FEWS NET, the prevalence of malnutrition and the rate of crude mortality have surpassed famine thresholds in the Bay Region of southern Somalia. A combination of poor crop production and deteriorating purchasing power has pushed poor households in this region into massive food deficits. Due to this rapidly deteriorating situation, the FAO-managed Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit and FEWS NET have now classified this region as IPC Phase 5 Famine.